NHL Moneyline Model — 2026-04-16

NHL Moneyline Model - End of 2025-2026 Reg Season

2026-04-16 • timezone: America/Toronto • source: api-web.nhle.com • k=0.63 • C=0.3 • home_bias=0.03 • recency_halflife=60d: For entertainment purposes

learned + regularized

🤖 Model Projection

EDM

EDM @ home, 74.1% confidence

Highest confidence · 74.1%

🧠 Analyst Projection

COL

Seattle depleted, zero rest, home dominance

Colorado stacks every signal — league-best GD/G (+1.20), dominant shot volume (33.7 SF/G), home rest advantage, and Seattle arriving on zero rest with both NHL-caliber goalies out and multiple top forwards missing. The LAK@CGY model lean on CGY is countered by LA's superior recent form (L10 Pts% .700 vs .300), better GD/G trajectory, and CGY's leaky SA/G of 29.9 — LA has the sharper edge. Biggest risk on COL: Wedgewood is not elite and Colorado's own injury list (Kadri, Nelson, Toews day-to-day) could create exposure, but Seattle's situation is objectively worse.

vs model: ✓ EDM✓ COL✓ UTA✓ WPG✓ NSH✗ CGY

Candidates considered

1. COL (71.6%) — Seattle is a decimated roster (both goalies out, McCann out, Schwartz out) on zero rest facing the league's best team at home.

2. EDM (74.1%) — Vancouver on one day's rest with Kane/Forbort out, Draisaitl returning to motivate Edmonton in a rivalry clincher.

3. WPG (55.4%) — Hellebuyck anchoring home ice against a San Jose team on zero rest with no confirmed starter.

Claude · goalie/injury/odds analysis

Prediction Rate

rolling 50g: — • all-time: 59.4% • scored: 1336g

Rolling window 50g Games shown 140g

Model Summary

All-time
59.4% ▲ (1336 games)
50-53
52.7%
205g
53-58
53.2%
564g
58-65
63.2%
323g
65-100
74.2%
244g

Last 90 days

61.7% ▲ (583 games)

50-53

57.5%

120g

53-58

55.7%

212g

58-65

67.3%

165g

65-100

72.1%

86g

Last 60 days

62.7% ▲ (410 games)

50-53

57.0%

79g

53-58

58.3%

144g

58-65

67.5%

126g

65-100

70.5%

61g

Last 30 days

61.7% ▲ (230 games)

50-53

55.3%

47g

53-58

53.2%

79g

58-65

70.4%

71g

65-100

72.7%

33g

Last 7 days

45.7% ▼ (46 games)

50-53

44.4%

53-58

29.4%

17g

58-65

64.3%

14g

65-100

50.0%

Yesterday
66.7% ▲ (6 games)
50-53
50.0%
2g
53-58
100.0%
2g
58-65
100.0%
1g
65-100
0.0%
1g

Yesterday Recap (2026-04-15)

SEA @ VGK

Projection: VGK (56.7%)

✅ Actual: VGK

DAL @ BUF

Projection: BUF (52.6%)

❌ Actual: DAL

NYR @ TBL

Projection: TBL (73.6%)

❌ Actual: NYR

DET @ FLA

Projection: FLA (50.5%)

✅ Actual: FLA

TOR @ OTT

Projection: OTT (64.1%)

✅ Actual: OTT

SJS @ CHI

Projection: CHI (56.4%)

✅ Actual: CHI

Time	Matchup	P(Away)	P(Home)	Away ML	Home ML	Lean	Projected Team Metrics
9:00 PM	VAN @ EDM 🤖 MODEL PROJ Game 2025021311	25.9%	74.1%	+287	-287	EDM lean	Projection: EDM P(EDM): 74.1% • raw: 80.7% VAN Pts%35.8% GD/GP-1.17 L10 Pts%40.0% PP / PK21.9% / 72.0% SF / SA26.1 / 29.8 Rest1 GoalieKevin Lankinen (Expected) Inj · Evander Kane (Out: Kane (upper body) will most likely miss the Canucks' final two games of the 2025-26 season, Farhan Lalji of TSN reports.) Head coach Adam Foote said that Kane is done for the season unless the team runs into a lot of injuries before its last game Thursday in Edmonton. As such, Kane seems poised to finish the campaign with 13 goals, 31 points, 171 shots, 111 hits and a minus-20 rating over 71 appearances. The veteran winger will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. · Derek Forbort (Injured Reserve: Forbort (undisclosed) was placed on long-term injured reserve Tuesday.) In corresponding moves, the Canucks put Victor Mancini (undisclosed) on injured reserve and recalled Tom Willander from AHL Abbotsford. Forbort has already missed the last eight games. He will be eligible to play against Chicago on Nov. 5, but it's unclear when he will be available to return to the lineup. EDM Pts%56.2% GD/GP+0.10 L10 Pts%60.0% PP / PK30.1% / 77.7% SF / SA29.7 / 26.9 Rest2 GoalieConnor Ingram (Expected) Inj · Max Jones (Out: Jones (lower body) will be out of action for 3-4 weeks, according to Tony Brar of Oilers TV on Monday.) Jones sustained the injury in Saturday's 1-0 loss to the Kings. If the Oilers go on an extended playoff run, he could be an option to return to the lineup at some point. Jones has three goals, five points, 22 shots on net and 56 hits in 21 NHL outings this season. · Jason Dickinson (Out: Dickinson (leg) will be reevaluated ahead of the postseason, ruling him out for the next two games, Tony Brar of Oilers TV reports.) Dickinson is currently mired in a 13-game goal drought, and now he will have to wait until the playoffs before he gets another opportunity to find the back of the net. During his slump, the Ontario native managed just 17 shots on net, and will need to start shooting the puck more. · Leon Draisaitl (Injured Reserve: Draisaitl (lower body) participated in Monday's morning skate and should return to the lineup sometime in the opening round of the playoffs, Tony Brar of Oilers TV reports.) Draisaitl is on long-term injured reserve, and an exact date for his return remains unclear. He has been out since March 15 due to the injury, but he has been making some progress. Draisaitl finished the 2025-26 regular season with 35 goals and 97 points in 65 appearances.
10:00 PM	SEA @ COL Game 2025021312	28.4%	71.6%	+252	-252	COL lean	Projection: COL P(COL): 71.6% • raw: 77.5% SEA Pts%48.8% GD/GP-0.43 L10 Pts%20.0% PP / PK19.7% / 71.7% SF / SA25.6 / 29.4 Rest0 GoalieNikke Kokko (Expected) Inj · Philipp Grubauer (Out) out · Joey Daccord (Out: Daccord (lower body) won't suit up versus the Golden Knights on Wednesday, per the NHL media site.) Daccord will miss his third straight game, and that casts doubt on his ability to return before the end of the campaign. The Kraken have one game left after this one, which is Thursday versus the Avalanche. · Jaden Schwartz (Out) out · Jared McCann (Out) out · Matt Murray (Out) out COL Pts%73.5% GD/GP+1.20 L10 Pts%60.0% PP / PK17.4% / 84.5% SF / SA33.7 / 26.2 Rest1 GoalieScott Wedgewood (Expected) Inj · Devon Toews (Day-To-Day) day-to-day · Nazem Kadri (Day-To-Day) day-to-day · Brock Nelson (Day-To-Day) day-to-day · Josh Manson (Day-To-Day) day-to-day
7:30 PM	STL @ UTA Game 2025021309	36.3%	63.7%	+175	-175	UTA lean	Projection: UTA P(UTA): 63.7% • raw: 66.6% STL Pts%51.9% GD/GP-0.36 L10 Pts%60.0% PP / PK17.7% / 76.7% SF / SA25.3 / 27.8 Rest1 GoalieJoel Hofer (Expected) UTA Pts%56.8% GD/GP+0.37 L10 Pts%60.0% PP / PK20.0% / 78.0% SF / SA27.8 / 26.1 Rest1 GoalieVitek Vanecek (Expected)
8:00 PM	SJS @ WPG Game 2025021308	44.6%	55.4%	+124	-124	WPG lean	Projection: WPG P(WPG): 55.4% • raw: 53.8% SJS Pts%51.9% GD/GP-0.57 L10 Pts%50.0% PP / PK20.9% / 76.1% SF / SA25.7 / 29.7 Rest0 Inj · Ryan Reaves (Out) out · Logan Couture (Injured Reserve: ir-lt) ir-lt WPG Pts%50.6% GD/GP-0.30 L10 Pts%50.0% PP / PK18.8% / 77.9% SF / SA26.4 / 27.7 Rest1 GoalieConnor Hellebuyck (Expected) Inj · Alex Iafallo (Day-To-Day) day-to-day · Neal Pionk (Day-To-Day) day-to-day · Elias Salomonsson (Day-To-Day) day-to-day · Gustav Nyquist (Day-To-Day) day-to-day · Vladislav Namestnikov (Day-To-Day) day-to-day
9:00 PM	LAK @ CGY Game 2025021310	46.9%	53.1%	+113	-113	Toss-up	Projection: CGY P(CGY): 53.1% • raw: 50.1% LAK Pts%55.6% GD/GP-0.25 L10 Pts%70.0% PP / PK17.1% / 74.7% SF / SA28.0 / 27.3 Rest1 Inj · Alex Turcotte (Day-To-Day) day-to-day · Jeff Malott (Out) out · Andrei Kuzmenko (Injured Reserve: Kuzmenko (knee) is making strides in his recovery and will be reevaluated in 7-8 days, Alexander Legget of Mayors Manor reports Wednesday.) Kuzmenko was previously ruled out for the remainder of the regular season, but this latest update would leave the door open for him to play in the season finale versus the Flames on April 16. In his 15 games before getting hurt, the 30-year-old winger notched four goals and five assists, including five power-play points. CGY Pts%46.3% GD/GP-0.60 L10 Pts%30.0% PP / PK15.9% / 80.2% SF / SA28.2 / 29.9 Rest1 GoalieDustin Wolf (Expected) Inj · Kevin Bahl (Day-To-Day) day-to-day · Matt Coronato (Day-To-Day) day-to-day · Zach Whitecloud (Day-To-Day) day-to-day · Yan Kuznetsov (Out: Kuznetsov (upper body) will miss the rest of the 2025-26 regular season, according to Pat Steinberg of Sportsnet 960 The Fan on Tuesday.) After sitting out Sunday's 4-1 win over Utah because of the injury, Kuznetsov won't play against the Avalanche and Kings on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. He will conclude the 2025-26 campaign with four goals, 12 points, 64 shots on net, 103 blocked shots and 79 hits across 57 appearances.
8:00 PM	ANA @ NSH Game 2025021307	49.6%	50.4%	+102	-102	Toss-up	Projection: NSH P(NSH): 50.4% • raw: 45.9% ANA Pts%55.6% GD/GP-0.20 L10 Pts%20.0% PP / PK18.6% / 76.9% SF / SA30.7 / 28.5 Rest1 GoalieLukas Dostal (Expected) Inj · Chris Kreider (Day-To-Day) day-to-day · Radko Gudas (Day-To-Day) day-to-day · Ross Johnston (Day-To-Day) day-to-day NSH Pts%53.1% GD/GP-0.26 L10 Pts%40.0% PP / PK22.6% / 81.7% SF / SA28.0 / 29.5 Rest2 GoalieJuuse Saros (Expected) Inj · Nicolas Hague (Day-To-Day) day-to-day

Time	Matchup	P(Away)	P(Home)	Away ML	Home ML	Analyst
9:00 PM	VAN @ EDM Game 2025021311	25.9%	74.1%	+287	-287	✓ Agrees picks EDM
10:00 PM	SEA @ COL Game 2025021312	28.4%	71.6%	+252	-252	✓ Agrees picks COL
7:30 PM	STL @ UTA Game 2025021309	36.3%	63.7%	+175	-175	✓ Agrees picks UTA
8:00 PM	SJS @ WPG Game 2025021308	44.6%	55.4%	+124	-124	✓ Agrees picks WPG
9:00 PM	LAK @ CGY Game 2025021310	46.9%	53.1%	+113	-113	✗ Disagrees model: CGY · analyst: LAK
8:00 PM	ANA @ NSH Game 2025021307	49.6%	50.4%	+102	-102	✓ Agrees picks NSH

For entertainment purposes only. Not financial or betting advice. All projections are statistical models and should not be used as the basis for wagering decisions.